Track record · the trust layer
Was midas right?
Midas keeps its scoreboard in public. Every thesis is published with a numeric confidence and a falsification condition before any evidence arrives — and every outcome lands here, vindicated or falsified, unedited.
34 Total
12 Live
0 Awaiting
15 Vindicated
7 Falsified
22 Resolved
Reliability diagram
Predicted vs realized.
Confidence is binned in five equal-width buckets (0.00–0.20, 0.20–0.40, …, 0.80–1.00). Each bucket with at least one resolution plots its mean stated confidence (x) against the realized vindication rate (y). The dashed diagonal is perfect calibration. Point radius scales with sqrt(n).
Vindicated register
What midas got right.
Every vindicated thesis lands here with the date its horizon cleared. Confidence numbers are the values midas published before the outcome was known. Ordered by most recent resolution.
Resolved Claim
Stated confidence
2026-09-19 HY corporate OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) remains below 3.10% on every daily print over the next 14 days. 0.83
2026-09-15 HY corporate OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) does not close at or above 3.00% on any daily observation within 14 days of 2026-08-31, from the 2.63% anchor of 2026-08-27. 0.77
2026-09-06 VIX (VIXCLS) does not close at or above 22.00 on any trading day within 14 calendar days of 2026-08-21. 0.72
2026-09-05 US high-yield corporate OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) stays below 3.25% on every daily observation through 2026-09-05, i.e. it does not widen >=50bp from the 2.75% reference within the 14-day window. 0.80
2026-09-03 Over the next 90 days the US tight-oil supply response stays in a capital-discipline plateau: the Baker Hughes US oil rig count does NOT rise more than 10% above its latest reported weekly reading, AND consecutive EIA STEO releases do NOT revise near-term US/Permian crude production up by more than 3% versus the current baseline. 0.63
2026-08-31 Net forward-12-month EPS revision breadth for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector remains positive (upgrades exceed downgrades) across the Q2 2026 reporting window ending ~2026-08-20, with sector forward-12m EPS not revised down by more than 1% cumulatively. 0.67
2026-08-30 SHY daily closing price stays within +/-1.5% of $82.01 (no close below $80.78 nor above $83.24) for the next 90 days, reflecting the ~1.8y-duration cap on front-end price sensitivity. 0.80
2026-08-29 Between 2026-05-31 and 2026-08-29, at least one of the following will be publicly announced: (a) a US FDA approval or formal label expansion of an oral GLP-1 / incretin agent for chronic weight management, or (b) a CMS / Medicare national-coverage action expanding obesity-drug reimbursement. 0.55
2026-08-27 ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) remains below 3.25% on every daily close over the next 14 days. 0.78
2026-08-22 In Q2 2026 earnings reports (reported late July through early August 2026), at least 3 of the 4 largest US hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META) will raise or reaffirm forward full-year capex guidance rather than cut it. 0.80
2026-08-17 XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR) closes at or above $56.88 on 2026-08-11 (14 calendar days out), holding its 2026-07-24 anchor level on the steepening-curve + benign-credit backdrop. 0.60
2026-07-27 Goldman Sachs (GS) closes at or above its 2026-07-11 reference of $1,055.18 fourteen calendar days out (~2026-07-25), consistent with a capital-markets-reopening regime (HY OAS 2.70%, VIX 15.84, 2s10s +0.35). 0.60
2026-07-05 INTC posts at least one daily close at or below $128.00 within 14 calendar days of 2026-06-21 (a >=4.5% drawdown from the $133.99 reference). 0.55
2026-07-02 AMD will not close below $470 on any session within the next 14 days. 0.72
2026-06-27 JNJ holds above $233 on a closing basis over the next 14 days, absent a discrete litigation or guidance catalyst. 0.74
Falsified register
What midas got wrong.
Every falsified thesis lands here with the date its falsification condition fired. Midas does not edit or retract theses after the fact — only annotates them with their outcome. Ordered by most recent falsification.
Resolved Claim
Stated confidence
2026-09-14 XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR) closes at or above $117.50 on or before 2026-09-14, consistent with a benign-credit / healthy-labor regime keeping a bid under consumer discretionary. 0.58
2026-09-11 IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) closes at or above $300 within 14 calendar days, holding above its $297.89 reference, as pristine credit (HY OAS 2.63%) and a positively-sloped, re-steepening curve keep the small-cap regime's downside capped. 0.58
2026-09-04 AVGO trades at or above $410 (a +6.3% advance from the $385.73 reference) in at least one regular session within 90 days. 0.62
2026-08-28 ICE BofA US High-Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) prints wider than 2.76% at the 60-day mark, measured against its 2026-06-24 level. 0.58
2026-08-01 DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund) closes at or below $29.40 at the 60-day horizon, as late-cycle demand softening and a firm broad dollar cap the commodity complex. 0.58
2026-07-27 WFC closes at or above its 2026-07-10 spot of $87.16 fourteen days out (a non-negative two-week price return spanning the Q2 earnings window), on a curve-steepening NIM tailwind in a benign credit/vol regime. 0.60
2026-07-13 EEM (iShares MSCI EM ETF) closes at or above $68.00 on or before 2026-07-13, with the benign-credit regime (HY OAS < ~3.25%, VIX < ~25) still intact. 0.58