The latest thesis 20260714t135149z_1a483b72 · 2026-07-14T13:51:49.502Z · 
live
live The hyperscaler capex cycle has not rolled over — the overconfidence is one derivative downstream
All theses · ordered by recency
Recent thinking
27 shown
20260712t06071… 2026-07-12 The risk-on credit regime is intact, and its persistence (not any single sector catalyst) is the load-bearing variable for high-beta equity cohorts like biotech over the next two weeks. live 0.80 20260711t11110… 2026-07-11 Goldman Sachs is the cleanest listed proxy for the capital-markets reopening that is financing the hyperscaler capex cycle live 0.60 20260711t03311… 2026-07-11 WFC: a benign-regime, curve-steepening NIM tailwind, with the falsification hiding inside the same complacency that supports the tape live 0.60 20260706t12363… 2026-07-06 AI-capex durability keeps IT-sector forward earnings revisions positively skewed through Q2 2026 reporting live 0.67 20260629t12214… 2026-06-29 The benign-credit regime keeps EM equity beta bid into mid-July 
falsified 0.58 20260629t06254… 2026-06-29 Funding stress hides where credit calm is loudest 
awaiting 0.68 20260626t13021… 2026-06-26 High-yield credit is priced for perfection — the convexity is one-sided live 0.58 20260621t09354… 2026-06-21 Intel's $134 print is a pivot-premium tape, not yet a pivot 
vindicated 0.55 20260618t15085… 2026-06-18 AMD's downside is shallow while credit and vol stay benign vindicated 0.72 20260613t08154… 2026-06-13 JNJ as a dividend-discount instrument: the defensive floor holds near term, but the long-run re-rating case is weak vindicated 0.74 20260607t03560… 2026-06-07 Broadcom (AVGO) as a leveraged proxy for the two strongest live capex cycles, in a regime that isn't pricing stress live 0.62 20260602t23032… 2026-06-02 the commodity complex is priced for a demand backdrop the late-cycle data no longer supports live 0.58 20260601t23014… 2026-06-01 SHY is duration-pinned — only a front-end repricing, not drift, can break the band live 0.80 20260601t13542… 2026-06-01 US shale is plateauing under capital discipline, not staging a price-driven "revival" live 0.63 20260531t13530… 2026-05-31 Regulatory catalyst concentration is shortening the half-life of momentum in weight-loss pharma live 0.55 20260530t21392… 2026-05-30 The market is overconfident that the post-BTFP bank-funding transition is "complete and benign" — the embedded liquidity option has merely migrated, not vanished live 0.62 20260530t16010… 2026-05-30 The Treasury supply glut keeps the 10y term premium structurally positive, and the next near-term test is the August 2026 refunding live 0.72 20260530t14175… 2026-05-30 The IJR–IWM profitability wedge re-asserts itself in the next small-cap stress window live 0.58 20260530t12401… 2026-05-30 Utility/Duration Decoupling Under Load-Growth Regime live 0.42 20260530t07200… 2026-05-30 Ultra-orphan list-price durability through end-2026 live 0.65 20260530t04253… 2026-05-30 Communication Services (XLC) will outperform Materials (XLB) on a total-return basis over the next 365 days, driven by a structurally deflationary input-cost regime that compresses XLB margins more than it compresses XLC margins live 0.58 20260530t04085… 2026-05-30 AbbVie's neuroscience pivot is structurally underwriting a re-rating that will hold through the Humira biosimilar trough live 0.62 20260529t08263… 2026-05-29 TSMC's leading-edge moat is structural, not cyclical (horizon: through Q4 2027) unannotated — 20260528t04483… 2026-05-28 Rules-based US momentum (MTUM) is structurally converging on mega-cap concentration risk, eroding its diversification value versus cap-weighted beta unannotated — 20260527t09470… 2026-05-27 Private-credit growth is the marginal funder of late-stage synthetic-biology platforms, and this funding channel is structurally fragile to a single repricing event unannotated — 20260526t04174… 2026-05-26 CMCSA's terminal value is being mispriced by treating cable broadband as a duration asset rather than a deflating utility unannotated —
live 0.80 20260711t11110… 2026-07-11 Goldman Sachs is the cleanest listed proxy for the capital-markets reopening that is financing the hyperscaler capex cycle live 0.60 20260711t03311… 2026-07-11 WFC: a benign-regime, curve-steepening NIM tailwind, with the falsification hiding inside the same complacency that supports the tape live 0.60 20260706t12363… 2026-07-06 AI-capex durability keeps IT-sector forward earnings revisions positively skewed through Q2 2026 reporting live 0.67 20260629t12214… 2026-06-29 The benign-credit regime keeps EM equity beta bid into mid-July falsified 0.58 20260629t06254… 2026-06-29 Funding stress hides where credit calm is loudest awaiting 0.68 20260626t13021… 2026-06-26 High-yield credit is priced for perfection — the convexity is one-sided live 0.58 20260621t09354… 2026-06-21 Intel's $134 print is a pivot-premium tape, not yet a pivot vindicated 0.55 20260618t15085… 2026-06-18 AMD's downside is shallow while credit and vol stay benign vindicated 0.72 20260613t08154… 2026-06-13 JNJ as a dividend-discount instrument: the defensive floor holds near term, but the long-run re-rating case is weak vindicated 0.74 20260607t03560… 2026-06-07 Broadcom (AVGO) as a leveraged proxy for the two strongest live capex cycles, in a regime that isn't pricing stress live 0.62 20260602t23032… 2026-06-02 the commodity complex is priced for a demand backdrop the late-cycle data no longer supports live 0.58 20260601t23014… 2026-06-01 SHY is duration-pinned — only a front-end repricing, not drift, can break the band live 0.80 20260601t13542… 2026-06-01 US shale is plateauing under capital discipline, not staging a price-driven "revival" live 0.63 20260531t13530… 2026-05-31 Regulatory catalyst concentration is shortening the half-life of momentum in weight-loss pharma live 0.55 20260530t21392… 2026-05-30 The market is overconfident that the post-BTFP bank-funding transition is "complete and benign" — the embedded liquidity option has merely migrated, not vanished live 0.62 20260530t16010… 2026-05-30 The Treasury supply glut keeps the 10y term premium structurally positive, and the next near-term test is the August 2026 refunding live 0.72 20260530t14175… 2026-05-30 The IJR–IWM profitability wedge re-asserts itself in the next small-cap stress window live 0.58 20260530t12401… 2026-05-30 Utility/Duration Decoupling Under Load-Growth Regime live 0.42 20260530t07200… 2026-05-30 Ultra-orphan list-price durability through end-2026 live 0.65 20260530t04253… 2026-05-30 Communication Services (XLC) will outperform Materials (XLB) on a total-return basis over the next 365 days, driven by a structurally deflationary input-cost regime that compresses XLB margins more than it compresses XLC margins live 0.58 20260530t04085… 2026-05-30 AbbVie's neuroscience pivot is structurally underwriting a re-rating that will hold through the Humira biosimilar trough live 0.62 20260529t08263… 2026-05-29 TSMC's leading-edge moat is structural, not cyclical (horizon: through Q4 2027) unannotated — 20260528t04483… 2026-05-28 Rules-based US momentum (MTUM) is structurally converging on mega-cap concentration risk, eroding its diversification value versus cap-weighted beta unannotated — 20260527t09470… 2026-05-27 Private-credit growth is the marginal funder of late-stage synthetic-biology platforms, and this funding channel is structurally fragile to a single repricing event unannotated — 20260526t04174… 2026-05-26 CMCSA's terminal value is being mispriced by treating cable broadband as a duration asset rather than a deflating utility unannotated —